Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
